New Trends in Chinese Tourists' Overseas Travel？

China's travel demand is robust and recovering rapidly. With the resumption of offline activities and favorable policies, tourism demand accelerated in 2023, with tourist arrivals and revenue gradually recovering and exceeding 2019 levels . According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 2023 National Day holiday, China's tourist arrivals reached 826 million, a year-on-year increase of 71.3% on a comparable basis , and 4.1% higher than in 2019. Tourism revenue reached 753.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.5% on a comparable basis , and 1.5% higher than in 2019. Consumer willingness also gradually rebounded. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the average per capita consumption during the National Day holiday was 912 yuan, a 9.8% increase compared to 2019. It is estimated that the total number of tourist arrivals in China for the year will exceed 5.1 billion, and tourism revenue will exceed 5 trillion yuan, recovering to over 85% and 75% of 2019 levels , respectively .

Outbound tourism in 2024 showed a further recovery trend as outbound flight volume gradually recovered. China's leading OTA ( Online Travel Agency ) platforms continued to lead the industry in recovery speed, with an even greater lead during peak seasons. This can be attributed to:

(1) The overall service is comprehensive and can meet the user's needs in a one-stop, high-quality manner.

(2) Hotels and air tickets have supply chain advantages.

(3) The proportion of long-distance travel increases during peak season compared to weekdays, and platforms with stronger brand awareness are expected to benefit more.

In 2025 , the further recovery of outbound flight supply is expected to drive a further recovery in outbound tourism. The continued increase in overall tourism demand and the sustained growth in outbound passenger numbers in the medium to long term are expected to support stable growth in outbound tourism. The structural shift of travelers who previously preferred to book group tours through offline travel agencies towards independent travel is also expected to support OTA outbound tourism growth continuing to outpace the industry average. It is predicted that overall outbound tourism revenue growth in 2025 will remain around 10% , while Ctrip's outbound tourism revenue growth is expected to reach 25% .

According to OAG data and Ctrip, international flight passenger traffic is expected to recover to around 80% of 2019 levels by October 2024. By region, Central Asia, Africa, West Asia, Oceania, and Europe are leading the industry average in recovery rates, while North America is lagging significantly, and its future recovery remains to be seen. By country and major outbound cities and destinations, popular outbound travel destinations such as Italy, the UK, Malaysia, and Singapore are recovering faster, while countries facing visa difficulties and geopolitical risks, such as France, the US, and the Philippines, are recovering relatively slowly.

In terms of the overall destination share of outbound flights, Southeast Asia and East Asia remain the most popular outbound destinations, accounting for 76.1% of the total outbound flight volume , followed by Europe, West Asia, and Oceania. Looking at the recovery trend of outbound tourism throughout the year, the overall recovery rate of outbound flights from China is expected to recover from approximately 70% in Q1 2024 to 80% in Q4 2024 , and is expected to further steadily recover in 2025. Ctrip's overall outbound flight booking recovery continues to lead the industry, with a recovery rate 20-30 percentage points higher than the industry average during the off-season , and a further increase to 40 percentage points higher during the peak season .

Furthermore, another significant shift in consumer behavior in the outbound tourism industry in 2024 was the structural change in traveler preferences. Previously, travelers who preferred booking group tours through offline travel agencies shifted towards independent travel, which benefited the growth of leading OTAs' outbound tourism business. While Ctrip's overall outbound flight bookings have recovered to 120% of pre-pandemic levels , the recovery of its group tour outbound tourism products remains at 50-60% of pre-pandemic levels, a situation that has persisted for approximately three quarters. Looking ahead to 2025 , although Ctrip's significantly higher-than-average recovery in outbound tourism may be showing signs of normalization, its supply chain advantages and the continued shift of overall offline outbound demand to leading OTA platforms will likely support Ctrip's outbound tourism revenue growth rate to remain higher than the industry average. It is predicted that overall outbound tourism revenue growth will remain around 10% in 2025 , while Ctrip's outbound tourism revenue growth is expected to reach 25% .

Overseas Expansion: Leveraging the demand for outbound travel from Chinese tourists to strengthen supply chain capabilities is expected to support long-term growth. Leading OTA platforms continue their overseas expansion, which is likely to support medium- to long-term revenue and profit growth. Furthermore, continuously strengthening service capabilities and meeting the increasing demand for inbound tourism from foreign tourists may also provide additional support for long-term revenue growth.

Trip.com's purely international business primarily comprises two platforms: Skyscanner and Trip.com . It is estimated that by 2024 , the combined revenue from these two platforms will account for 19% of Trip.com's total revenue , with Trip.com contributing nearly 10% . In Q3 2024, Trip.com 's revenue grew by 60% year-on-year . Given the higher average order value of international hotels and the higher commission rates for international ticketing, Trip.com 's operating profit margin should be better than its Chinese business under stable conditions. Furthermore, regarding inbound tourism, it is estimated that by 2024 , revenue from inbound tourism will account for 20-25% of Trip.com's brand revenue and 2-3% of the group's total revenue . With the continued expansion of visa-free and visa-facilitated travel to more countries and the gradual recovery of global tourist interest, inbound tourism is expected to support Trip.com's long-term growth.